Could Coronavirus Save the Economy?

First a disclaimer: This article is going to discuss the potential repercussions of a nationwide outbreak of COVID-19 in what may sound like a positive light.  This in no way means that I think such an outbreak would be good.  Given the estimated fatality rates, a nationwide outbreak would likely result in 2.3 million to 10 millions deaths, which would be tragic and horrific regardless of any positive effects it might have.  Even if such an event might have the potential for significant positive effects, the emotional value of the lives lost would far outweigh any positive effects it might cause.


COVID-19 has a death rate somewhere between 0.7% and 3%.  It has not spread enough outside China to get a solid count, but in China, the death rate is between 3% and 4% in a few places and 0.7% everywhere else.  Making a good estimate of the death rate would require knowing much finer details about these regions than we do, though certain organizations are estimating around 3% despite this lack of critical details.

COVID-19 affects adults far more dramatically than children.  Around 0.8% of deaths are in the 0-4 year old age range.  Only 0.6% are in the 5-18 year old age range.  Thus, minors in general are far less likely to die from the virus than adults.  The highest fatality rate is in the 65+ year old age range, with 72% of deaths falling within that age range.

Together these facts mean that a nationwide COVID-19 outbreak in the U.S. could cause as many as (given a 3% fatality rate) 79,200 deaths in the 0-4 age range, 59,400 deaths in the 5-18 age range, 2,633,400 deaths in the 19-64 age range, and 7,128,000 deaths in the 65+ age range.

China, Japan, and the U.S. are approaching economic decline or even disaster due to low birth rates.  This causes several problems, but one of the largest problems is that these countries have aging populations, where a much larger portion of the population is older people than younger people.  As this larger population of older people approaches retirement and various age related diseases, they are going to be contributing less to the economy, but they are going to need more care from it.  This means they will be contributing less labor while needing more, in a population where there are far more people needing labor than there are people capable of providing it.

COVID-19 promises some potential for improving the situation, however only at a horrific cost.  A nationwide COVID-19 outbreak in any of these countries will reduce the older, retiring population far more dramatically than the younger population (to be clear, it will do this by killing them, probably slowly and painfully).

In short, COVID-19 could save the economies of China, Japan, the U.S., and many other countries with low birth rates and aging populations.  Again though, this would come at a horrific cost.